Full guide
How Delta Play works
Prediction markets, probabilities, shares, payouts, grouped events, resolution and settlement. Start here if you want the fundamentals rather than just the quick walkthrough.
Delta Play is a prediction-market game. A market asks a precise question with published resolution rules, for example: “Will the RBA change the cash rate at its next meeting?”
You take a position by choosing an outcome. If your prediction is correct when the market resolves, your winning shares settle at 1.00 Delta Coin each. If it is wrong, they settle at 0.
Prices are shown from 0.00 to 1.00. A Yes price of 0.68 means the market is implying about a 68% chance of Yes.
YES
0.68
Market implies 68%
NO
0.32
Other side is 32%
The aim is not just to pick the most likely outcome. The aim is to find a price that looks wrong compared with your own estimate.
That does not guarantee a win. It means the offered price is below your estimate, so repeated good forecasts like this should be positive over time.
You can buy more than one share. More shares means a larger position: bigger upside if you are right, and more coins at risk if you are wrong.
Each winning share settles at 1.00 coin. Your gain is the final payout minus what you paid to enter.
Buying Yes at 0.68
The No side works the same way. If Yes is 0.68, No is 0.32 in a simple binary market.
Buying No at 0.32
Today Delta shows indicative probabilities while live trading is still disabled. The intended model is that prices can move as new information arrives and people change their forecasts.
Once trading exists, a position page should show what you entered, how many shares you hold, the current indicative value, and what happens if the market resolves for or against you.
Buy 10 Yes shares at 0.68.
See position size, entry cost and current estimate.
Market stops accepting new predictions.
Correct shares pay 1.00 each; incorrect shares pay 0.
Some questions have multiple possible outcomes, like who wins an election or which category finishes first. Delta shows those as grouped events.
Each outcome still behaves like its own prediction. In an exclusive event, only one outcome can ultimately resolve Yes, but you can inspect and save each outcome separately.
Every market needs clear resolution criteria, an official source where possible, and a fallback rule. Those rules matter more than vibes or headlines.
The market accepts predictions while it is open.
No new entries after the close time.
The published rules determine which shares settle at 1.00.
Delta Play rewards accurate forecasts. Correct settled positions improve your score; incorrect positions lose the coins spent on those shares.
The useful mental model is simple: find markets where your estimate differs from the displayed probability, size the position responsibly, and let the published rules decide the result.